A Sequential Rationality and Efficiency Test of U.S. Department of Agriculture Program Crop Price Estimates: Rice, Wheat, and Soybeans

This paper examines the USDA price estimates of rice, wheat, and soybeans and whether spot commodity prices reflect price information embodied in USDA estimates. Results indicate that the monthly USDA estimates are failed to meet a rationality condition. Rice and wheat actual prices marginally incorporate the information embodied in USDA past price estimates.