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Abstract
This study explores consumer demand for organic milk products (OMP) and prospective developments
in OMP supply chain in Portugal. Consumer demand is approached through a survey
accomplished with a stratified sample of 625 consumers from the Porto Metropolitan area
(north Portugal), whose population provides a broad representation of Portuguese. Likely future
developments in the Portuguese OMP supply chain are established for 2015 time horizon
through the Delphi technique, using a panel of 27 qualified experts from different professional
backgrounds. Results show inter alia that there are among consumers significant lack of
knowledge and conceptual distortion about the organic notion. Cluster analysis has led to the
detection of three differentiated consumer groups. Besides, over the coming years Portugal presumably
will not be capable to produce sufficient organic milk to satisfy its domestic demand
which probably will reach 5% of total milk consumption by 2015 (face to 1.25% in 2008);
therefore resorting to importation will continue. Moreover, average willingness to pay for OMP
is expected to be by that horizon around 22% more than for conventional counterparts. For the
Portuguese OMP industry, improving production efficiency and adopting best management
practices appear to be prerequisite for achieving business sustainability and competitiveness.