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Abstract

This paper examines the effect of changes in climatic averages on agricultural production at the national level in Cameroon. The empirical results reveal that Cameroon’s agriculture is influenced by climate variables. The economic value of the projected output in 2050 ranges from USD3.5 billion (41% less than the 1961–2001 mean value at 2.5oC increase in temperature and 8.5% increase in precipitation) to US$ 7.1 billion (18.5% greater than the 1961–2001 mean, for a 1.5°C increase in temperature and a 15% increase in precipitation). A 3.5% increase in temperature associated with a 4.5% increase in precipitation in the absence of irrigation facilities would be detrimental to Cameroon’s agriculture, leading to a loss of almost 46.7% in output value. This would negatively affect the economy as a whole, since close to 30% of Cameroon’s national GDP comes from agriculture.

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