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Abstract
This paper investigates whether the accuracy of outlook hog price forecasts can be improved
using composite forecasts in an out-of-sample context. Price forecasts from four wellrecognized
outlook programs are combined with futures-based forecasts, ARIMA, and
unrestricted Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models. Quarterly data are available from 1975.I
through 2007.IV, which allow for a relatively long out-of-sample evaluation period after
permitting model specification and appropriate composite-weight training periods. Results show
that futures and numerous composite procedures outperform outlook forecasts. At intermediate
horizons, OLS composite procedures perform rather well. The superiority of futures and
composite forecasts decreases at longer horizons except for an equal-weighted approach.
Importantly, with just few exceptions, nothing outperforms the equal-weight approach
significantly in any program or horizon. Overall, findings favor the usage of equal-weighted
composites, a result that is consistent with previous empirical findings and recent theoretical
papers.