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Abstract
Futures prices when combined with a basis forecast provide a reliable way to forecast cash
prices. The most popular method of forecasting basis is historical moving averages. Given the
recent failure of longer moving averages proposed by previous studies, this research reassesses
past recommendations about the best length of moving average to use in forecasting basis. This
research compares practical preharvest and storage period basis forecasts for hard wheat, soft
wheat, corn and soybeans to identify the optimal amount of historical information to include in
moving average forecasts. Only with preharvest hard wheat forecasts are the best moving
averages longer than 3 years. The differences in forecast accuracy among the different moving
averages are small and in most cases the differences are not statistically significant. The
recommendation is to use longer moving averages during time periods (or at locations) when
there have been no structural changes and use last year’s basis after it appears that a structural
change has occurred.