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Abstract

This technical report contributes to NC 1014's efforts to understand and improve the contribution of rural financial markets for rural growth. We investigate the ‗export-led growth' hypothesis about rural development, with particular emphasis on the implications of regional current account surpluses/capital account deficits, and deposits in commercial banks. We find that in just one case, subsequent rural deposits depend positively on prior rural export sector activity. But these deposits do not appear to support local investment: both subsequent rural employment and rural income growth are significantly negatively correlated with initial export intensity.

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