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Abstract
Shocks to agricultural markets due to animal disease outbreaks are especially disruptive. We use an Equilibrium Displacement Model (EDM) to estimate the price and welfare effects of the U.S. outbreak of High Path Avian Influenza (HPAI) that reduced turkey production by 9 to 12 percent and egg production by 5 to 7 percent over the last three quarters of 2022. We find that HPAI reduced consumer welfare by $199.2 million for turkey and $3.56 billion for eggs and reduced coarse grain expenditures by $112.3 million.