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Abstract
Information on typical differences in prices and price risk (as measured by the variances of
prices) across marketing arrangements aids fed cattle producers in making choices about
methods to use for selling fed cattle to beef packers. This information is also useful for policy
discussions on merits and drawbacks of alternative marketing arrangements. As part of the
congressionally mandated Livestock and Meat Marketing Study, we investigated differences in
prices and price risk for fed cattle cash market and alternative marketing arrangements. The
modeling approach, which is similar to a hedonic model, controls for differences in cattle quality
and delivery month and accounts for the within- and across-week correlation in prices. The
analysis uses a recent data set for the October 2002 through March 2005 time period and
includes sale lots of six or more cattle purchased by the 29 largest beef packing plants in the
United States. The results indicate that marketing agreements, which are long-term ongoing
agreements between fed cattle producers and packers that use formula pricing, offered the best
trade-off between price level and price risk for both beef and dairy breed fed cattle. Prices were
within $0.01 per pound carcass weight for both beef and dairy breed fed cattle sold under
marketing agreements instead of through direct trade, but they were 18% to 20% less volatile.
While auction barn prices were higher than all other methods, they were also the most volatile.
Forward contracts had the lowest average price and the most volatile prices. The results also
indicate that larger and higher quality lots were associated with higher average prices and
lower variance of prices.