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Abstract
We re-assess the effect of new information contained in the Hogs and Pigs Reports (HPR)
focusing on the rationality of the announcements. We find that HPR preliminary numbers are
irrational estimates of the final numbers and market expectations before the announcements are
also irrational estimates of HPR numbers. Based on these results we modify the conventional
measure of new information entering into the market (i.e., announcement - market expectation),
and incorporate final estimates and the market’s best forecast into the analysis. Results show
modest statistical differences between the conventional and modified measures of surprise;
however some economic differences, as large as 27 cents/cwt, emerged. We also find that, as
expected, marketings information has a larger effect on short-term price changes and breedings
information has a larger effect on long-term price changes.