Files
Abstract
Estimation of liquidity costs in agricultural futures markets is challenging because bid-ask
spreads are usually not observed. Spread estimators that use transaction data are available,
but little agreement exists on their relative accuracy and performance. We evaluate four
conventional and a recently proposed Bayesian estimators using simulated data based on
Roll’s standard liquidity cost model. The Bayesian estimator tracks Roll’s model relatively
well except when the level of noise in the market is large. We derive an improved estimator
that seems to have a higher performance even under high levels of noise which is common in
agricultural futures markets. We also compute liquidity costs using data for hogs and cattle
futures contracts trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The results obtained for
market data are in line with the findings using simulated data.