Review of Forecasting in the Economic Research Service
Haidacher, Richard C.; Matthews, Jim L.
1977

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Abstract

Excerpts from the report Summary: An evaluation of the forecasting activity in the Economic Research Service identified several areas which needed further attention: (1) specification of appropriate procedures for measuring forecast error, (2) determination of actual sources of forecast error, (3) determination of the implications of forecast error, and (4) use of futures quotations in forecasting cash market prices. The particular methods used in developing ERS forecasts, although very detailed in many respects, are quite informal compared with more structured quantitative models. As a consequence, it is much more difficult to verify the procedures and forecasts in a scientific sense. Information compiled in this report suggests that such procedures can eventually be verified and, consequently, more fully evaluated in a scientific context.

Details

Title
Review of Forecasting in the Economic Research Service
Author(s)
Haidacher, Richard C.
Matthews, Jim L.
Subject(s)
Issue Date
1977-01
Publication Type
Report
DOI and Other Identifiers
10.22004/ag.econ.344506
Record Identifier
https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/344506
Language
English
Total Pages
458
Note
Contents: Summary --- Introduction (Background – Key Considerations in Appraising Forecasting) --- ERS Outlook-Information Program (Objectives – National Agricultural Outlook Conference – Publications Output) --- Procedural and Organizational Characteristics of ERS Forecasting (General Characteristics – In the Commodity Economics Division – In the National Economic Analysis Division – In the Foreign Demand and Competition Division – Conclusions) --- Addendum (Agency Level Changes – Food and Fiber Economics Division Changes) --- Analysis and Evaluation of Forecast Procedures and Performance (Background – Technical Considerations in Forecast Evaluation – Evaluation of ERS Forecasts – Comparative Forecast Evaluation – Determining Sources of Forecast Error – Some Aggregate Models in ERS) --- Conclusions (Organizational Findings – Personnel and Staffing – Methodology and Procedures) --- Appendix A—Statements Prepared by ERS Analysts in Response to a Questionnaire on Forecasting Procedures --- Appendix B—Organizational Attributes of the Outlook Program --- Appendix C—Summary of Models Used in Forecasting Evaluation --- Appendix D—ERS Quarterly Forecast Records.
Record Appears in
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) > Economic Research Service > Miscellaneous Publications

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