Progress Report on Cotton Production Response with Special Applications to the Southeast

Excerpts: From 1943 to 1950, acreage allotments on cotton were not in effect, but contrary to expectations, the acreage of cotton decreased. The effect of the drain of manpower on the acreage of cotton in the Southeast during this period was studied. The outflow of labor for military service and in response to nonfarm employment opportunities does not explain the decrease in acreage before 1949. Large underemployment on cotton farms in the Southeast before that year probably explains why the outflow of labor did not affect the acreage of cotton. Substitution of hay and peanuts (and perhaps pasture) for cotton acreage in response to relative changes in price provides a more adequate explanation of changes in cotton acreage before 1949. The data, indicate, however, that after 1949 the effect of off-farm work on cotton acreage assumed increasing importance. The first section of this report summarizes the situation in the United States as a whole and in the Southeast during World War II years. The second examines the most popular hypothesis advanced to explain changes in cotton acreage in the Southeast, and the third provides an alternative explanation. The fourth section expands the alternative explanation by pursuing the implications of changes during the war for the general problem of supply response.