China is a major meat producer, consumer, and importer, but consumption changes are difficult to assess due to inconsistencies in Chinese data. China’s population growth is slowing, meat prices are rising, and income is growing at a slower pace than during earlier decades. Disease and other supply-side factors constrain domestic meat supply and imports are a growing share of the supply of each type of meat. Nevertheless, statistical models based on consumer income growth and meat prices suggest China has potential for continued growth in meat consumption. Consumption of poultry, beef, and mutton is growing faster than pork consumption but pork still comprises more than half of consumer meat expenditure in China. Consumption is growing despite rising meat prices in China, and statistical models confirm that consumption is relatively insensitive to price changes. Beef and mutton consumption have risen despite sustained price increases for these meats. Poultry appears to be a substitute for pork.
Record Identifier
https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/338955
Language
English
Total Pages
59
Note
This report analyzes China’s meat consumption using two official Chinese data sources: (1) disappearance calculated from meat production and net import data, and (2) household purchases of meat reported by a national household survey. The report discusses the divergence of the two data series, changes in consumption of three major categories of meat, growth in household income, and fluctuation in meat prices. The study estimates relationships between meat consumption, meat prices, and household income, using two methods: (1) first-differenced linear regressions of three categories of per capita meat consumption on inflation-adjusted per capita income and meat prices, and (2) a first-differenced Almost Ideal Demand System for expenditure on three meat categories. Using these estimates, the study calculates predicted meat consumption for 2022–31 based on assumed paths of income and prices.
Series Statement
Economic Research Report Number 320