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Abstract

Excerpts from the report Summary: The returns to the producers of hogs depend to a considerable extent upon how well they adjust the volume of their production to the demand for the product. They can make the best adjustment only if they can reach a sound conclusion as to the future developments in the hog market. Clear understanding of the forces which affect the market price is a prerequisite to reaching such conclusions. The dominant influences in the hog market, as shown by this study, are (1) the supply of hogs on the market and expected to arrive on the market within the next few months, (2) the quantity of hog products in storage, (3) the general price level, (4) general business conditions, and (5) the prices of alternative products. The general levels of demand, both here and abroad, are both important, but ordinarily change only slowly. The ‘‘hog-price cycle” was found to be due to the tendency of hog producers to overshoot the mark in increasing production when the relation of hog prices to corn prices was favorable and to reduce too much when it was unfavorable. This excessive reaction resulted from the accumulation of production changes during the interval before reduced or increased breeding began to offset market receipts and prices

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