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Abstract

In literature, impact estimates of agricultural biotechnology vary strongly according to the region, the crop, the year, the scale, and the methodology of the study. Therefore, this paper provides a methodological background for analysing, interpreting, and comparing these estimates. All possible uncertainties entailed in the estimation procedure are reviewed as well as a methodology to incorporate them into a stochastic simulation model. This procedure can be used to assess the welfare effects of agricultural biotechnology in the European Union.

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