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Abstract

Using a purely theoretical analysis we show how long run demoeconomic behavior depends on household preferences, productivity and the cost of childrearing. In particular a dominant trend in growth can be interspersed with periods of fluctuation as slowly moving changes in productivity, preference and child care costs push nonlinearities past crucial bifurcation points. Moreover, under "robust conditions" nonperiodic, essentially unpredictable demoeconomic behavior can occur, thus suggesting a possible explanation for persistent and substantial errors in population forecasts.

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