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Abstract

The nwnber of maize farms declared bankrupt in South Afiica rose sharply from 16 farms in 1970 to 205 farms in 1986 and then fluctuated around the 150 farm level in the early l 990's. Ordinary least squares regression and principal component analysis confirmed a priori expectations that maize farm bankruptcy was negatively related to the lagged real maize producer price and annual rainfall (business risk factors), but positively related to the lagged aggregate farm debt/asset ratio and lagged real interest rates ( financial risk factors).

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