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Abstract

A novel genetically modified (GM) wheat variety (HOSUT) shows yield increasing potential of ca. 28%. We apply the real options concept of Maximum Incremental Social Tolerable Irreversible Costs (MISTICs) to conduct an ex-ante assessment of the poten- tial economic impact of HOSUT wheat for Germany. In different scenarios cost and benefits associated with the adoption of this yield-increasing innovation are analyzed. Our results indicate that not authorizing HOSUT wheat is correct if German society values the hazard of social irreversible costs from this GM technology to be between € 7.75 and € 12.78 per citizen or more, depending on the scenario.

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