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Abstract

Mineral fertilizers are considered to be a driving force for production in the present day agriculture. In Poland, from among 2.5 mln tons of compound mineral fertilizers, expressed in a pure ingredient, above 2 mln tons is used in domestic agriculture. Since 1992 has been a growing tendency in the usage of such fertilizers. The main aim of this analysis is to present multifarious forecasts concerning the use of mineral fertilizers in Poland in 2014–2025. Three ways of building a future prediction have been used in the conducted research: extrapolation, adaptation and causal prediction. The analyses pinpoint that till 2025 the estimated growth in the use of mineral fertilizers is going to fl uctuate around 9–23.5% in comparison with the average score in 2010–2013. It is important to mention that in the most probable and sustainable scenario of a transformation in agriculture, this growth is going to amount to about 15%.

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