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Abstract

This paper summarises results from the inaugural China Carbon Pricing Survey. The survey elicited expectations about the future of China’s carbon price from China-based experts on carbon pricing and carbon markets during July to September 2013. The results indicate confidence that all seven of China’s pilot schemes will be implemented by 2015, with prices rising over time and having an effect on investment decisions; however there is significant uncertainty about price levels. There is strong confidence that China will proceed to introduce national emissions trading, probably in conjunction with a carbon tax. Carbon price levels are expected to rise, in time exceeding those currently prevailing in the EU emissions trading scheme. A large majority of respondents expect that China’s 2020 emissions intensity target will be achieved or surpassed, and almost all expect further targets to be taken on in 2025 and 2030, possibly in the form of absolute limits on emissions.

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