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Abstract
Cointegration analysis is used to test whether the South African futures market for white maize
was efficient (futures prices predict spot (cash) prices that reflect all publicly available
information) in 1997 and 1998. Tests are also conducted to assess whether or not white maize
futures prices are unbiased predictors of future spot prices (for effective price discovery). There
was no long-run relationship between white maize futures and spot prices for 1997, but there is
evidence of a long-run relationship between these price series in 1998. Furthermore, the 1998
futures price was an unbiased predictor of future spot prices for both the annual and three-month
contract. This could be evidence of a market learning process and a progression towards
efficiency, which has seen a marked increase in market liquidity (contract volumes traded) since
late 1996.