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Abstract

The proposed Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (T-TIP) between the United States and the European Union (EU) aims to address several important barriers facing agricultural trade, including tariffs, tariff-rate quotas (TRQs), and non-tariff measures (NTMs). Estimated ad valorem tariff equivalents of tariffs/TRQs and NTMs currently in place are as high as 120 percent, significantly limiting trade between the two regions. This study uses model simulations to assess the effects of T-TIP on agriculture under three broad scenarios: complete removal of tariffs and TRQs; elimination of select NTMs along with tariffs and TRQs; and a lowering of the willingness of consumers to purchase imported goods previously limited by NTMs. Results of all scenarios suggest an increase in U.S.-EU agricultural trade from T-TIP, benefiting both regions. While the United States realizes a relative increase in agricultural exports, the EU benefits from lower import prices and larger macroeconomic gains than the United States. The estimated annual increase in U.S.-EU agricultural trade ranges from $6.3 billion to $11.6 billion when compared with the 2011 base year.

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