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Abstract

The study fitted ARIMA models based on some diagnostic tests and ARIMA (1, 1, 8) was finally chosen for total export, ARIMA (6, 2, 6) for agricultural export and ARIMA (1, 2, 1) for vegetables exports and ARIMA (8, 2, 8) for fruits export earnings. The percent of export earning was 10% in 2006-07 which would gradually increase up to 2008-09 and it would remain same till 2010-11. If the existing agricultural export earnings continue, Bangladesh would obtain 13% higher growth in the year 2006-07 but 6% lower growth in the year 201011 than the preceding years, respectively. The vegetables export earnings in Bangladesh would mark 23% growth in 2006-07 but it would decrease by 10% in of 2010-11. So, the government of Bangladesh should take cash incentive export policy for the development of this sector. It is strongly recommended that forecasting of the export earnings might be implemented in export policy making, especially in planning and development in Bangladesh, because these were cost effective and more accurate.

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