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Abstract

There is no shortage of studies regarding price forecasting and marketing strategies of producers. However, the majority of these studies take a normative approach, focusing on deriving an optimal strategy for producers to follow based on information received from producer surveys. Due to such things as psychological biases, producers may not actually use the marketing information that they say they do. This study uses actual producer transaction data to determine how producers marketing decisions correspond with those recommended by market advisory services and with those that use futures spreads to calculate expected returns. The results show that producers do respond to using futures spreads to represent expected returns to storage. Also, it appears that Oklahoma producers make marketing decisions opposite of those recommended by market advisory services.

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