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Abstract

The traditional necessary condition for futures market inefficiency is the existence of alternative forecasting methods that produce mean squared forecast errors smaller than the futures market. Here, a more exacting requirement for futures market efficiency is proposed-forecast encompassing. Using the procedure of Harvey and Newbold, multiple forecast encompassing is tested with the CME fluid milk futures contract. Time series models and experts at the USDA provide the competing forecasts. The results suggest that the CME fluid milk futures do not encompass the information contained in the USDA forecasts at a two-quarter forecast horizon.

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