The Impact of Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) on Hog, Pork, and Beef Prices: the Experience in Korea

Korea experienced two outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), one in the year 2000 and one in 2002. After the first outbreak, prices for hogs, pork, and beef dropped 15-20% before the government began an intervention program. The effects of these two outbreaks are examined using Box and Tiao's intervention analysis model and a GARCH model Although the second outbreak resulted in many times more animal deaths than the first outbreak, its effect on prices was much smaller. The reason may be because the government's response to the first outbreak set a precedent for the second one.

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2006 NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management

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