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The United States is a dominant world producer of almonds and is the dominant player in India's market, accounting for an 80-85 percent share. However, U.S. almond imports to India face high tariffs and non-tariff barriers which diminish the full potential of export volume for U.S. almonds. This research uses an empirical model to examine the trade effects of eliminating India's phytosanitary protocols of in-shell almond imports shipped from the U.S. for the years 2003/04 to 2006/07. The model uses a price-wedge analysis incorporating uncertainty as to the outcome of the net revenue in almond exports which adds to the economic cost of the exports. With the elimination of phytosanitary protocols, the results indicate that trade would be increased and much of the increased imports would accrue to U.S. producers. Therefore lessening restrictive import requirements for pest control will normally increase the flow of agricultural products and improve the welfare of consumers. This U.S.-India almond-trade model also can be used to estimate the trade effects of other phytosanitary measures on agricultural products.


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