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Abstract

This case study evaluates milk input price-risk management strategies for a processor of refrigerated dairy products. The firm perceives price risk both when milk costs are over budget and when budgets are too conservative. Price-forecast­ ing models produced mean absolute percentage errors of sic to nine percent. Ina 2000-2008 simulation, hedging with Class ID milk futures reduced the variance of budget deviations by only 31 percent, while hedging with call options produced a similar cost profile with more predictable cash-flow requirements. Recommendations include using the price-forecasting models to improve budgeting accuracy but delaying the launch of a hedging program.

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