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Abstract
This paper investigates whether the accuracy of outlook hog price forecasts can be improved using
composite forecasts in an out-of-sample context. Price forecasts from four widely-recognized
outlook programs are combined with futures-based forecasts, ARMA, and unrestricted Vector
Autoregressive (VAR) models. Quarterly data are available from 1975.I through 2007.IV for
Illinois/Purdue and 1975.I-2010.IV for Iowa, Missouri, and USDA forecasts, which allow for
a relatively long out-of-sample evaluation after permitting model specification and appropriate
composite-weight training periods. Results show that futures and numerous composite procedures
outperform outlook forecasts, but no-change forecasts are inferior to outlook forecasts. At
intermediate horizons, OLS composite procedures perform well. The superiority of futures
and composite forecasts decreases at longer horizons except for an equal-weighted approach.
Importantly, with few exceptions, nothing outperforms the equal-weight approach significantly
in any program or horizon. In addition, the equal-weight approach as well as other composite
approaches can generally produce larger trading profits compared to outlook forecasts. Overall,
findings favor the use of equal-weighted composites, consistent with previous empirical findings
and recent theoretical papers.