Global consumption of grains is projected to
double by 2050 due to projected growth in
population and per capita consumption of grains
directly and also in livestock production as
incomes rise. Global food security depends on
expanding current farming activities in a
sustainable way to meet this demand. Climate
variability already has a significant influence on
global grain production and further impacts on
production are anticipated as the climate changes.
Grain yields are likely to decline in tropical and
subtropical regions, as well as in regions with
‘Mediterranean’ climates. They could potentially
increase in more temperate regions. Adapting to
climate change may be effective in lessening the
negative impacts of small changes in climate.
Studies of global food security indicate, however,
that the world’s population will be exposed to a
greater risk of hunger. In this paper we suggest
that these studies may have significantly
underestimated the risk to food security.
Environmental limitations to grain production,
increased variability in production and a range of
policy constraints need to be addressed in a
systematic and coherent way.