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Abstract

Since 2001, the United States has concluded negotiations with 13 countries, resulting in 8 trade agreements (TAs). Three additional agreements have been negotiated but not yet ratified by Congress, as of March 2011. Other countries have become increasingly active in negotiating their own trade pacts. This proliferation of TAs between key U.S. trading partners and competitors may have raised concerns among U.S. exporters, whose share in established markets could be eroded by such deals. In this study, ERS examines how recently concluded TAs between ASEAN (Southeast Asia) countries and China and Australia/New Zealand, as well as pending TAs between the United States and Korea, Colombia, and Panama, will likely affect U.S. agricultural trade. Model results suggest that TAs between ASEAN countries and China and ASEAN countries and Australia/New Zealand would result in moderate losses to U.S. agricultural exports of about $350 million to those countries, but losses would be partially offset by gains in other markets. U.S. agricultural exports to Korea would expand by an estimated$1.9 billion per year if the U.S. TA with Korea were implemented. The U.S.-Colombia TA would result in an estimated $370 million in additional U.S. exports per year. U.S. exports would realize smaller gains of about$50 million per year under the pact with Panama. Empirical results confirm theoretical findings that trade created under TAs exceeds trade diverted, but that results depend on the specific circumstances of each agreement.

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