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Abstract
Recent attempts to quantify the sources of growth in Chinese agriculture have attributed an
exceptionally large share of this growth to the contemporary institutional and market
reforms within China. To analyze this important issue we use a newly constructed panel
data set that includes an agricultural research or stock-of-knowledge variable. Our results
suggest that while still a significant source of growth, the direct growth promoting
consequence of institutional change and market reforms have been overstated by these
earlier studies, even during the early stages of reforms that included the rapid introduction
of the household production responsibility system. Research-induced technical change
accounts for nearly 20% of the growth in aggregate agricultural output since 1965 although
the share of growth attributable to technological innovation and changes in inputs and
institutions varies considerably over time. Disaggregating the results within China also
reveals substantial interregional variability in the sources of local growth, as would be
expected in such a large and diverse country.