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Abstract
This paper reviews hypotheses about the impacts of rural population growth on
agriculture and natural resource management in developing countries and the implications
for productivity, poverty, and natural resource conditions. Impacts on household and
collective decisions are considered, and it is argued that population growth is more likely
to have negative impacts when there is no collective responses than when population
growth induces infrastructure development, collective action, institutional or
organizational development. The impacts of population pressure, particularly on natural
resource conditions, may be very different in different contexts, depending on the nature
of local markets, institutions, and other factors. Thus careful and comparative empirical
work is needed in different contexts before general conclusions can be drawn. There is
still a lack of such empirical evidence.
The results of one study in central Honduras are used to examine some of the
hypotheses presented. The results support neo-Malthusian concerns about the effects of
population growth on land degradation, but also provide some support to Boserupian
predictions that population pressure will induce adoption of labor-intensive land
improvements, collective action to manage natural resources, and organizational
development. In general, however, the impacts of population pressure were found to be
relatively small and other factors, including infrastructure development and technical
assistance programs, had stronger impacts on agricultural change and natural resource
management. Although induced innovation theory argues that population pressure may
induce such policy responses, we found that these interventions were more likely in less-densely
populated communities. This emphasizes that such “induced” policy responses
to population pressure do not happen automatically.