Files
Abstract
A great deal of attention is currently being paid to the discussion of
the reform of global agricultural trade. In this paper, the effects of
the revised Harbinson paper (March 2003) are analysed with an
extensively extended GTAP model. With the help of a base run,
projections are implemented in the form of economic developments
as well as already enacted EU policy reforms and measures (Agenda
2000, Mid-Term Review, EU enlargement, EBA agreement) from 1997
to 2014. The base run is compared with a scenario simulating the
Doha Round of the WTO based on the revised draft of the Harbinson
proposal. The difference between the base run and the model scenario
provides information on the effects on EU trade and budget.
The revised Harbinson paper leads to a particularly negative development
in the trade balances and production quantities for the
agricultural and food sectors of the EU-27, which are supported with
high import duties, export subsidies and direct payments. Significant
effects could be seen particularly in the cases processed food,
beef, fruits and vegetables, other cereals and oils and fats. A decomposition
of the total effects of the implementation of the
Harbinson paper provides detailed insights in the effects resulting
from the changes in the complex protection structure of the CAP.
The implementation of the Doha Round of the WTO negotiations
leads to a reduction in expenses for agricultural market policy of the
CAP, caused especially by the production related reduction in direct
payments and the complete dismantling of export subsidies.