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In this article, we simulate structural change within the German dairy sector employing a sector-wide optimization model. As a result, we obtain cost minimizing structures of the dairy sector for various scenarios differentiated by time horizon and level of transportation cost. We demonstrate that the model is capable of explaining the current trend which is characterized by a decrease in the number of dairies while average capacity is increasing. However, this development is less pronounced if transportation cost rises relative to other costs.


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