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Abstract

This report evaluates the United States and world corn and soybean markets for the 2009-2019 time period using the Global Corn and Soybean Policy Simulation Model. This analysis is based on a series of assumptions about general economic conditions, agricultural policies, weather conditions, and technological change. The major influence in the corn market will be U.S. corn based ethanol production. If the production of corn based ethanol remains strong, corn prices will likely remain strong. However, if the U.S. Federal government subsidies or mandates change, the world corn market could be negatively impacted. Under the current assumptions in the model, corn price is expected to remain in a range between $3.70 and $4.10 per bushel. The level of Chinese soybean imports is the leading factor in the world soybean market. China currently imports 60% of the available soybeans, and that is expected to increase to about 65% by 2019. Major exporters will continue to be the U.S., Brazil and Argentina. However both Brazil and Argentina should increase exports while U.S. exports will remain at the current level. Soybean prices are expected to fluctuate, but remain in the $9.70 per bushel range throughout the forecast period.

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