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Abstract
This paper synthesizes the evidence on cereal crop productivity in developing countries
over the past 30 years and looks at future prospects for productivity growth. For more than
three decades we have witnessed the phenomenal growth of cereal crop productivity in the
developing world. Termed the Green Revolution, the initial phase of this growth resulted
from an increase in land productivity and occurred in areas of growing land scarcity and/or
areas with high land values. Significant investments in research and infrastructure
development, especially irrigation, were the strategic components of this increased
productivity. In the post-Green Revolution period, particularly in Asia, productivity growth
has been sustained through increased input use and, more recently, through more efficient
use of inputs. Lately, however, indicators show a decrease in the growth rate of productivity
of two of the three primary cereals, rice and wheat. The first two sections of this paper
present trends on cereal crop productivity in developing countries over the last three
decades. Supporting evidence includes yield and other partial factor productivity trends
and a summary of studies on total factor productivity. The third section speculates on the
prospects for future growth.