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Abstract

The U.S. citrus industry faces potentially devastating losses due to diseases currently infecting or threatening citrus groves. Potential exists in the development of genetically modified citrus trees that are resistant to disease. Growers face risk not only from losses attributable to disease, but also in their decisions to invest in establishing groves. Scenarios including hypothetical disease resistant citrus cultivars as well as forecasted tree losses, fruit prices, and costs are modeled and evaluated with risk ranking to identify the potential benefit of adopting improved citrus cultivars. Returns to the grower are the primary focus, however, returns to organizations producing disease resistant cultivars are also modeled.

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