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Abstract
In its Progress Report on Biofuels the European Commission proposes a more restrictive
biofuel directive which sets a mandatory minimum share of biofuels in total fuel consumption in the
transport sector of 10% per Member State by 2020. This is likely to have a strong impact on demand
for biofuel inputs such as plant oils, cereals and sugar beet. To analyze the effects of this proposal on
land use and agricultural markets, an extended version of the partial equilibrium model ESIM of the
European agricultural sector is developed and applied which covers the production of and demand for
biofuels. Two policy scenarios are simulated for the projection horizon until 2020: a baseline under
which the share of biofuels in total transport fuels increases to 6.9% by 2020, and a scenario with a
more demanding biofuel directive resulting in a 10% share. Results show that a substantial part of the
policy-induced demand for biofuels is covered by imports of biofuels and biofuel inputs. Especially
after the implementation of a potential Doha agreement, EU production of bioethanol strongly
decreases, while almost all bioethanol demand is covered by imports.