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Abstract
This paper aims to contribute to the Brazilian deindustrialization
debate, attributed to exchange appreciation that, for several authors,
is the agricultural export increase effect. Constant market share
method applied on FAO export data, for the 1991 to 2003 period, indicates
that Brazilian agricultural export increased more than the potential
rate, due to expressive competitiveness gains. After the exchange regime
change, in 1999, the competitiveness increase was partly neutralized by
growth share of products whose world demand was in decline. Exports
value decomposition showed that the volume effect predominates, fact
more evident after the flotation exchange adoption, when the price effect
was negative. Even discounting the real exchange depreciation effect, the
international prices change was unfavourable to the Brazilian agriculture.
The flexibility effect negative sign during all the period indicates
great participation of products in disagreement with the offer law, fact
worsened recently, when most of the products whose exports increased in
volume had falling prices in the international market. The manufactured
export decline and the largest basic products trade growth indicated
a tendency to agribusiness deindustrialization.