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Abstract
A carbon tax would penalize carbon intensive fuels like gasoline and shift
fuel consumption to less carbon intensive alternatives like biofuels. Since biofuel
production competes for land with agriculture, a carbon tax could raise
land rents, divert land towards fuel production, and raise agricultural prices.
This paper analyzes the welfare effect of a carbon tax on fuel with gasoline
and biofuel as available fuel choices, in the presence of a labor tax and biofuel
subsidy. The second-best optimal carbon tax is also quantified. Findings show
that when biofuels is part of the fuel mix, the carbon tax has a commodity
price effect which arises from tax-induced changes in land rent. The commodity
price effect could exacerbate or attenuate the tax interaction effect caused
by higher fuel prices, depending on the elasticity of substitution between gasoline
and biofuel, the price elasticity of miles demand, and the relative emissions
intensity of gasoline and biofuel. Numerical results show that the commodity
price effect affects the value of the second-best optimal carbon tax, and that
the effect is greater if the elasticity of substitution between gasoline and biofuel
is high, miles is more price inelastic, and the GHG intensity of biofuel is lower
compared to gasoline. In addition the existence of a fixed biofuel subsidy leads
to a greater divergence between the value of the second-best optimal carbon
tax with or without biofuels. A carbon tax policy decreases GHG emissions
and increases welfare, in contrast to a biofuel subsidy, which also decreases
GHG emissions but at a net welfare loss.