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Abstract
Zambia is one of the poorest countries in Africa. Despite substantial reform
during the 1990s, the economy has remained heavily dependent on urban-based mining.
Copper's long-standing dominance led to a strong bias against agriculture, which
undermined the sector's growth and export potential. Consequently poverty has remained
concentrated within marginalized rural areas. Recent volatility in copper exports and
growing foreign debt indicate the need for further economic diversification and pro-poor
growth. These needs have been clearly identified in the country's Poverty Reduction
Strategy Paper (PRSP), which outlines a series of policy objectives aimed at combating
HIV/AIDS, reversing the deterioration of education and rural infrastructure, and
accelerating agricultural growth.
This paper uses a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to assess the
potential impact on inequality and poverty of the key PRSP policies, as well as the effects
of foreign debt forgiveness and changes in the copper sector. The findings suggest that, in
the absence of very rapid growth, the pro-poor policies outlined in the PRSP will not
enable Zambia to reach its Millennium Development Goal (MDG) of halving poverty by
2015. Achieving this goal will require gross domestic product (GDP) to grow at an
annual rate of over ten percent. Reduction in poverty can however be achieved by
addressing HIV/AIDS, which currently reduces annual GDP growth by one percent.
Furthermore, substantial poverty-reduction can occur through the acceleration of
agricultural growth, although limited market opportunities necessitates supporting
investment in rural infrastructure. Overall, the potential of the agricultural sector depends
on the government's commitment to reforms and the continued removal of the anti-agricultural
bias created by the dominant copper sector.