Files
Abstract
This study estimates the impacts of different types of government expenditure on
agricultural growth and rural poverty in Thailand. The results show that, despite
Thailand’s middle-income status, public investments in agricultural R&D, irrigation,
rural education, and infrastructure (including roads and electricity), still have positive
marginal impacts on agricultural productivity growth and rural poverty reduction.
Additional government spending on agricultural research and development
improves agricultural productivity the most and has the second largest impact on rural
poverty reduction. Investments in rural electrification reduce poverty the most and have
the second largest growth impact. These two investments dominate all others and are
win-win for growth and poverty reduction. Road expenditure has the third largest impact
on rural poverty reduction, but only a modest and statistically insignificant impact on
agricultural productivity. Government spending on rural education has only the fourth
largest impact on poverty, but a significant economic impact through improved
agricultural productivity. Irrigation investment has the smallest impact on both rural
poverty reduction and productivity growth in agriculture. Additional investments in the
Northeast region contribute more to reducing poverty than investments in other regions.
This is because most of the poor are now concentrated in the Northeast and it has suffered
from under investment in the past. The poverty reducing impacts of infrastructure
investments, such as electricity and roads, are particularly high in this region. The
growth impacts of many investments are also greatest in the Northeast than in other
regions, hence there is no evident tradeoff between investments for growth and
investments for poverty reduction.
Thailand is a middle-income country and it is insightful to compare these results
with similar studies undertaken in low-income countries like India, China, and Uganda.
Some of the results are similar, for example, the high returns to public investments in
agricultural research and some kinds of rural infrastructure arise in most countries
because of the inherent market failures associated with these types of public goods. But
others results are different. For example, the returns to public investment in education in Thailand are quite low, partly because of increasing private investment but also the
inappropriate composition of much public spending on education. Within infrastructure,
results from low-income countries often show higher returns to road investments than
telecommunications and electricity. But in the case of Thailand, it is investment in
electricity that shows the highest return. Thailand has invested heavily in rural roads and
a dense road network has already been built, suggesting that additional investment may
yield diminishing returns. Also, there has been significant investment by the private
sector in rural telecommunication, leading to a much-reduced role for the public sector.
This situation differs from many low-income countries, especially in Africa, where the
private sector is still embryonic and the public sector must play a dominant investment
role for the foreseeable future.