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Abstract
Although Australia is the sixth largest producer of beef, with production of 2
million metric tonnes, behind regions such as the USA, Brazil and the EU it is the
second largest exporter of beef behind Brazil. Average beef exports from Australia
are approximately 65% of the total amount of beef produced or about 1.3 million
metric tonnes. For these reasons Australia is particularly vulnerable to diseases that
are not endemic to the country and could close or disrupt its export markets for beef.
In this study we construct a bioeconomic optimization model of the Australian beef
industry that captures production and consumption decisions, domestically and
internationally, and the impacts on the beef industry of two potentially catastrophic
diseases, foot and mouth disease (FMD) and bovine spongiform encephalitis (BSE).
The results of the study suggest that depending on control methods losses to the
economy of FMD range from $1.3 - $20 billion, with the impact on producers and
consumers varying depending on control levels. For BSE the effect of trade bans due
to the disease is a range with a gain of $200 million to a loss of $400 million in total
economic welfare, with the negative impacts on producer surplus in all cases and
consumer welfare being positive in all cases.