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Abstract
The objective of this paper is to analyze the best trade approach for Southern
Mediterranean countries (Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Jordan, Syria,
Lebanon and Turkey) that helps them increase market access and develop trade policies
which will facilitate the most efficient economic development. The study uses, the
MacMap-HS6 database on market access and the Modeling International Relations under
Applied General Equilibrium (MIRAGE) model of the global economy. While most
South Mediterranean (SM) countries are very protectionist, they enjoy a fairly good
access to world markets, either due to product specialization or to preferences granted by
the European Union in the industrial sector. Today, these countries are simultaneously
opting for multilateralism, North-South regionalism, and South-south regionalism. Are
these options substitutes of each other? As this study suggests, that is not the case. A
South-South integration of these countries is not enough trade – creating, while a North –
South Free Trade Agreement with Europe is significantly trade – diverting, particularly in
the case of SM countries’ agricultural imports. In order to examine the dynamics between
multilateralism and regional strategies, the ‘structural congruence’ of these different
trade regimes is measured and a new indicator is proposed.