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Abstract

An econometric international supply/demand/trade simulation and forecast sorghum model in a partial equilibrium framework is built in this research paper to quantify the effects of key exogenous variables on the U.S.-Mexico sorghum trade. A forecast baseline is also established by using the validated model and values of exogenous variables provided by FAPRI to project the level of endogenous variables over the period of 2009 to 2017. Impacts of plausible alternative scenarios for key exogenous variables are simulated from 2009 to 2017.

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