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Abstract
Biofuels may make a substantial contribution to meeting the world’s energy
needs. That contribution may come sooner and be greater if there is a strong climate
policy to reduce greenhouse gases and biofuels can be produced in a way that minimizes
greenhouse gas emissions. We investigate the land use implications of biofuels under
different policy conditions using a computable general equilibrium model of the world
economy that has been adapted to explicitly consider land use change. We find that to
meet a substantial portion of the worlds liquid fuel needs a global area approximately
equal to that of today’s cropland would be needed. As much as two-thirds of the land
could come from intensification of existing land, especially pastureland. Conversion of
forests and the loss of natural ecosystems and carbon dioxide emissions associated with
land use change present a substantial risk. We also find that comparative advantage in
biofuels likely rests in the tropics despite belief in the US that biofuels could be a
domestic source of energy, freeing us from imports. An attempt to meet US fuel needs
through a domestic biofuels program would likely mean the US would become a major
food importer and would contribute to higher land and food prices in the US.