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Abstract
Over the past 50 years and longer, the supply of food commodities has grown
faster than the effective market demand, in spite of increasing population and per
capita incomes. Consequently, the real (deflated) prices of food commodities
have steadily trended down. The past increases in agricultural productivity and
production, and the resulting real price trends, are attributable in large part to
technological changes enabled by investments in agricultural R&D. Evidence is
beginning to emerge of a slowdown in the long-term path of agricultural
productivity growth. These productivity patterns mirror a progressive slowing
down in the growth rate of total spending on agricultural R&D and a redirection
of the funds away from farm productivity that began 20-30 years ago.