Expected Changes in China's Grain and Oilseed Industries and Implications for the U.S. and World Agriculture

A spatial optimization model was developed to analyze the impacts of structural changes in China’s consumption of wheat, corn, rice, and soybeans on its agricultural sector and world agricultural trade. The model included 16 exporting and importing countries and regions. China was divided into 31 provinces and the United States into 24 producing regions and 10 consuming regions. The model optimizes agricultural production and distribution systems to meet the predicted demand for grains and oilseeds in 2020 under several assumptions associated with technical progress in producing the grains and oilseeds in China, the United States, and other countries.