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Abstract
The following paper assesses the impact of different policy options on the land use and associated
biodiversity values of jointly organized low intensity grazing systems (‘Allmende’) in
Southern Bavaria. We use an integrated economic and ecological modelling approach to
compare the results of the scenarios with a reference situation that reflects the Common Agricultural
Policy prior to the Fischler Reform. The economic sub model is based on single farms
which alter their land use in response to economic stimuli. Within the economic part, key
factors like the farm’s endowment with machinery, quota and buildings but also the farmer’s
attitude are regarded. Within the rule based ecological sub model we analyze three main parameters:
(a) protected habitats according to the EC Habitats Directive, (b) biodiversity for
selected taxonomic groups (plants, lichens, ground beetles) and (c) habitat quality of selected
target species (plants, butterflies). An overall evaluation of the scenarios leads to the conclusion
that the impact of the Fischler reform will be fairly limited in the study area, since at the
observed level of intensity the lower product prices will be compensated by higher direct
payments. If all payments were strictly targeted to agri-environmental measures and set to a
level which guarantees a low input management of the grass land, the overall public expenses
could be reduced by approx. 100 to 200 € ha-1. In addition this setting will provide additional
habitats for the target species. However, the number of agricultural employment opportunities
and the agricultural value added decline severely. Regarding all indicators but the extent of
protected habitats and the public costs, a scenario of complete market liberalization performs
the worst.